Counting underway for 30th Dail

Counting has now started across Ireland for the election of the 30th Dáil.

RTÉ has reported a surge in voter turnout, with weather conditions much better than polling day five years ago and the final turnout expected to be higher than the level of 63% in several constituencies. Even in Cork North-West where 73.36% was 2002's best turnout, there are early indications that turnout increased this year.

An RTÉ exit poll suggests that Fianna Fáil will win almost exactly the same share of the vote as in 2002, but that Fine Gael will increase its vote by around 4%. The poll shows decreases in support for Labour and the PDs, with the Greens and Sinn Féin expected to take new seats. However the exit poll refers only to first preference votes, with the election decided on transfers.

Despite repeated assertions that they will not enter into coalition with Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil are likely to fall short of the target needed and their coalition partners, the PDs, may not be able to win enough to stay in government. Depending on the number needed, Fianna Fáil may have to seek support from elsewhere. Labour's coalition with Fine Gael complicates matters for them and makes a straightforward deal with FF more difficult. And if Sinn Féin have enough to keep FF in power then Bertie Ahern will be aware that the public is not as opposed as he has personally claimed to be. Despite Sinn Féin failing to win many transfers in the past, it is likely that more Fianna Fáil and Labour voters will be willing to transfer to them this time.

Sean Donnelly has made a prediction for electionsireland.org whilst reports will come in through the day at irishelection.com

Fianna Fáil banking on poll surge as they refuse coalition with Sinn Féin

BBC Radio 4 World at One programme has interviewed Ireland's Foreign Minister Fianna Fáil TD Dermot Ahern who has reiterated that his party will go into opposition rather than form a coalition with Sinn Féin.

When asked why the DUP could form a coalition with them but FF couldn't, Ahern denounced Sinn Fein as 'Marxist-socialist' and asserted it was a different situation to the north because the republic was a 'voluntary democratic society'. Is he seriously saying voters are coerced in the north?

The BBC reminded Ahern of a poll that showed 46% of the public didn't believe that FF wouldn't do a deal if it was necessary to keep them in power and broadcast the independent Senator Shane Ross who suggested Fianna Fáil's priority of staying in power would override their aversion to a coalition. Fianna Fáil's repeated statement of opposition to a coalition could put them in a difficult situation after the poll, where they may have to choose between saving face and losing power or rapid back-pedalling to rewrite history and make new friends.

The latest opinion polls for the Irish general election have seen Fianna Fáil shore up their support whilst both parties of the opposition block, Fine Gael and Labour have faltered. However, the overall result remains too close to call. In the Sunday Business Post, FF/PD remains on 38% equal to FG/Labour, whilst the Sunday Independent's poll puts the ruling coalition on 40% and the opposition two parties on 37%. Both Sinn Féin and the Greens vote is holding up and increases the likelihood that at least one of them will be involved in negotiations for government if the breakdown of seats is as equal as the polling suggests.

The party no-one is willing to countenance a deal with, at least publicly, achieved the largest rise in the RedC poll for the Sunday Business Post by rising 3 points to 10%. RedC polls have previously placed Sinn Féin at a notably lower rate than IMS polls with the latest results giving encouragement for the party.

Time for a rethink, Bertie?

The Irish Independent's headline 'Fianna Fail in a nosedive' seems rather alarmist but their latest poll does show how closely the two coalition blocks have pulled together, making predictions as to who will form the next government increasingly difficult.

The FF/PD coalition is now on 39% and FG/Labour on 38%. That marks a fall of 4% for the governing coalition and a corresponding 4% increase for the opposition. With the polls on such a knife edge, all parties will have to consider the possibility of alternative coalition negotiations.

Whilst Labour is a crucial part of the FG/Labour coalition, with 13% of the poll, the PDs increasingly seem of limited benefit to Fianna Fail. In the latest poll the PDs only scored 3%.
As a result, Sinn Fein's consistent showing and their willingness to engage in negotiations - and potentially join FF in government if the right deal can be struck - is looming in the face of Bertie Ahern. In the Independent's poll Sinn Fein was up 2 to 10%, matching the score published by other polling companies.

As Fionnan Sheahan says, 'Sinn Fein is timing its run perfectly.'

Adams predicts Sinn Fein advance in general election

Sinn Fein leader Gerry Adams has predicted success for the party in the recently announced Irish general election. The election will take place on May 24th. Although the party leadership is remaining tighlipped about the number of seats they expect to win, many commentators are suggesting they will double their TDs from 5 to 10 and may hold the balance of power.

Adams today said "Sinn Fein is going into this election campaign in a stronger position than ever before ... our objective is to be in government north and south." He also highlighted Sinn Fein's progressive programme, stating "We believe in the right to universal access to decent healthcare, education and childcare, we believe in the constitutional right to a home, we believe in building the economy and using the wealth created for the public good."

El Blogador has posted the results of a recent poll, showing the Fine Gael/Labour coalition closing with Fianna Fail and the PD's. FG/Lab stand on 41% (up 2%) whilst FF/PD is on 37% (down 1%). However, how this will translate into seats is not clear. The Greens are on 6% but Sinn Fein are now up to 10%, potentially holding the key to the next government. Sinn Fein would consider supporting a Fianna Fail government that agreed on action points on cross-border initiatives and, in particular, Sinn Fein reviving its demand for Westminster MPs in the north being given speakers rights in the Dail.

If Sinn Fein were to enter government in the south and north, it would be a serious step towards Irish unity and throw into sharp relief the failure of other southern parties who declare themselves to be republicans, to stand in elections on an all-Ireland basis.

Ahern attacks all-Ireland campaigning

Taoiseach Bertie Ahern today attacked Sinn Fein's all-Ireland agenda by criticising West Belfast Sinn Fein activists for joining Mary Lou McDonald's campaign in Dublin Central.

With Fianna Fail at risk of losing one of its two seats in the constituency to Sinn Fein, who came close in 2002, the Taoiseach's team are concerned at Sinn Fein's northern activists upping the campaigning stakes as the general election draws closer.

Whilst Ahern told the Irish Independent "It's fascinating to see people travel such long distances to try and upset me," others find it fascinating that a supposedly republican party like Fianna Fail have no members from the north to draw into the campaign, because they don't organise in the north of Ireland. Mary Lou McDonald's Dublin Central campaign is "twinned with Gerry Adams's West Belfast constituency, with Sinn Fein activists from both areas helping each constituency during elections.

However, when the results are know, Ahern may have a more conciliatory approach if a coalition with Sinn Fein keeps him in power.