The Irish Independent's headline 'Fianna Fail in a nosedive' seems rather alarmist but their latest poll does show how closely the two coalition blocks have pulled together, making predictions as to who will form the next government increasingly difficult.The FF/PD coalition is now on 39% and FG/Labour on 38%. That marks a fall of 4% for the governing coalition and a corresponding 4% increase for the opposition. With the polls on such a knife edge, all parties will have to consider the possibility of alternative coalition negotiations.
Whilst Labour is a crucial part of the FG/Labour coalition, with 13% of the poll, the PDs increasingly seem of limited benefit to Fianna Fail. In the latest poll the PDs only scored 3%.
As a result, Sinn Fein's consistent showing and their willingness to engage in negotiations - and potentially join FF in government if the right deal can be struck - is looming in the face of Bertie Ahern. In the Independent's poll Sinn Fein was up 2 to 10%, matching the score published by other polling companies.
As Fionnan Sheahan says, 'Sinn Fein is timing its run perfectly.'
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