Counting underway for 30th Dail

Counting has now started across Ireland for the election of the 30th Dáil.

RTÉ has reported a surge in voter turnout, with weather conditions much better than polling day five years ago and the final turnout expected to be higher than the level of 63% in several constituencies. Even in Cork North-West where 73.36% was 2002's best turnout, there are early indications that turnout increased this year.

An RTÉ exit poll suggests that Fianna Fáil will win almost exactly the same share of the vote as in 2002, but that Fine Gael will increase its vote by around 4%. The poll shows decreases in support for Labour and the PDs, with the Greens and Sinn Féin expected to take new seats. However the exit poll refers only to first preference votes, with the election decided on transfers.

Despite repeated assertions that they will not enter into coalition with Sinn Féin, Fianna Fáil are likely to fall short of the target needed and their coalition partners, the PDs, may not be able to win enough to stay in government. Depending on the number needed, Fianna Fáil may have to seek support from elsewhere. Labour's coalition with Fine Gael complicates matters for them and makes a straightforward deal with FF more difficult. And if Sinn Féin have enough to keep FF in power then Bertie Ahern will be aware that the public is not as opposed as he has personally claimed to be. Despite Sinn Féin failing to win many transfers in the past, it is likely that more Fianna Fáil and Labour voters will be willing to transfer to them this time.

Sean Donnelly has made a prediction for electionsireland.org whilst reports will come in through the day at irishelection.com